Speculative Blow-Offs in Stock Markets
Stock prices have been driven to valuations that seemingly make little sense from a fundamental perspective. We believe the main culprit was way above-average money supply growth over the past eight...
View ArticleSpeculative Blow-Offs In Stock Markets – Part 2
The lagged effects of previous money supply growth excesses are still playing out, just as money supply and credit expansion seems to be coming under pressure.
View ArticleGold Sector: Positioning And Sentiment
It certainly looks as though speculative positions in gold futures and other sentiment indicators would allow for a rally to develop, even though they are no longer at pessimistic extremes.
View ArticlePrice Inflation – The Ultimate Contrarian Bet
If there is one thing apparently no-one believes to be possible, it is a resurgence of consumer price inflation.
View ArticleLIBOR Pains
The demand for corporate debt and in particular junk debt has been enormous, and corporations have obviously sated it by producing more debt than ever before (with covenants becoming progressively less...
View ArticleStrange Moves In Gold, Federal Reserve Policy And Fundamentals
Gold is an asset that isn’t offset by a corresponding liability. Thus it becomes the go-to asset in times of systemic crisis. In terms of discounting the future, it also reflects the inevitable...
View ArticleGold – An Overview Of Macroeconomic Price Drivers
Even though gold is currently not the generally used medium of exchange, its monetary characteristics continue to be the main basis for its valuation. Thus, analysis of the gold market requires a...
View ArticleFrench Election – Bad Dream Intrusion
The French stock market has been quite serene until very recently, and the decline over the past week may well have been inspired by weakness on Wall Street rather than election worries.
View ArticleCracks in Ponzi-Finance Land
The retail sector has replaced the oil sector in a sense, and not in a good way. It is the sector that is most likely to see a large surge in bankruptcies this year.
View ArticleFrench Selection Ritual, Round Two
Money supply growth rates are currently slowing in every major currency area except China. M1 growth was recently still fairly high in the euro zone in absolute terms, but the ECB is beginning to...
View ArticleThe Triumph of Hope over Experience
A number of people have wondered why the Fed seems so uncommonly eager all of a sudden to keep hiking rates in spite of economic data in Q1 indicating surprising weakness in economic output (of course...
View ArticleA Cloud Hangs Over The Oil Sector
Problems are set to emerge among high-yield borrowers in the US retail sector this year. This happens just as similar problems among low-rated borrowers in the oil sector were mitigated by the rally in...
View ArticleMoving Closer to the Precipice
The decline in the growth rate of the broad US money supply measure TMS-2 that started last November continues, but the momentum of the decline has slowed last month.
View ArticleThe Gold Conundrum
Despite the fact that the charts of gold itself don’t look bad at the moment, overall this is more of a neutral situation… with the relative weakness of gold stocks a concern.
View ArticleIn Gold We Trust, 2017
Gold itself continues to look fairly strong recently, but its rally is currently not confirmed by precious metals stocks. Silver is lagging the advance as well.
View ArticleParabolic Coin
Bitcoin had just moved up by more than $600 in one week to its then level of $2,400 –within a little more than a day it reached an interim peak of $2,760. Currently it trades at $2,750.
View ArticleQuantitative Easing Explained
There is allegedly no economic difference between money and t-bills or t-notes, as all are liabilities of the US government. What do you think?
View ArticleMonetary Madness - Down The Rabbit Hole
No doubt, today’s wage earner knows what it means to work harder, faster, and better, while slip sliding behind. However, for many wage earners the reasons why may be somewhat mysterious.
View ArticleCentral Banks – Tiptoeing Toward The Exit
It seems to us that the plan to reduce the size of the Fed’s balance sheet isn’t likely to go very far, if it is implemented at all. A fairly recent example was provided by the BoJ which decreased the...
View ArticleIncrementum Advisory Board Meeting, Q3 2017
The quarterly Incrementum Advisory Board meeting was held last week. This time we were joined by special guest Luke Gromen of research house “Forest for the Trees”. We add a few remarks on a topic Luke...
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